President Trump moved to declassify the UAP files. We don't trade the phenomenon, we trade the supply chain. A complete, fundamentals-first analysis of eighteen names, revenue, margins, earnings and valuation for each, with the technicals kept to a footnote.
The push to declassify the United States government's files on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) is not a sudden headline. It has been building for years, through Congressional hearings, sworn testimony, dedicated reporting offices and successive legislative provisions, and it has moved steadily from the fringe into the formal machinery of policy, with the current administration pressing the issue further. For a trading desk the metaphysics are beside the point. Disclosure is a policy catalyst, and in defense and aerospace policy catalysts do not move stocks through belief, they move them through budgets, mandates, research lines and contract awards. You do not have to take a view on the phenomenon to take a view on the supply chain any serious utilization effort would have to run through.
This is the full, fundamentals-first breakdown of Michal's 2026 thematic basket: eighteen US-listed names held at roughly equal weight, selected against one question. If advanced aerospace, materials, sensing or propulsion technology migrates out of classified programs and into procurement, who supplies the picks and shovels, and what are you actually paying for the privilege? The analysis below leads with the numbers that matter, revenue, growth, margins, earnings and valuation, and treats the price chart as a footnote. Every figure is live from TTerminal market data.
It is not a bet on what the files say. It is a portfolio of eighteen real businesses with the downside anchored by cash flows and the upside geared to a policy catalyst. The edge is in the fundamentals: who is cheap, who is quality, and who is priced for perfection.
A personal note before the names. I am neither a believer nor a sceptic here, I am an allocator, and what genuinely interests me is not whether the files contain anything but that a real policy catalyst has been pointed at a cluster of companies I would want to own anyway. That is a rare setup, a free option on a binary event bolted onto businesses that already stand on their own fundamentals. The commentary on each name below is how I would actually talk about it on the desk, candidly, with the parts I find compelling and the parts that give me pause.
Disclosure as a policy act flows downstream in three stages, each investable on a different horizon. First, narrative: headlines and hearings that move sentiment and create episodic volatility. Second, appropriation: budget language, study mandates and program lines that appear in guidance long before revenue. Third, procurement: the contracts and multi-year backlogs that turn a narrative into earnings. The basket is built to participate across all three rather than betting everything on the first, which is why fundamentals, not the chart, are the right lens.
Be clear about what this is not. It is not a wager that any specific UAP claim is true. Most of these are already substantial, profitable defense, materials and technology businesses driven today by ordinary cycles: the aerospace-materials upcycle, the semicap and measurement build-out, grid electrification and the defense budget. The UAP angle is optionality on top of real cash flows. That is what makes it a basket and not a lottery ticket.
It is worth stating plainly where this sits for a professional, because the subject invites both ridicule and overexcitement and neither is useful at the desk. The signal that matters is not any single claim about the phenomenon; it is the multi-year, broadly bipartisan drift of UAP from tabloid territory into the formal apparatus of government, hearings, oversight, reporting offices and budget language. That drift is what creates the investable catalyst, because it is the mechanism by which attention becomes appropriations and appropriations become contracts.
Our base case is deliberately unromantic. The most probable path is not a single revelatory moment but a slow institutionalization: incremental disclosure, more oversight, and dedicated funding lines for sensing, collection and analysis, awarded to the same defense, intelligence and aerospace primes that already do this work. That is precisely why the basket is built from established contractors and materials and instrumentation suppliers rather than speculative micro-caps. If the dramatic outcome ever arrives, these names participate; if it never does, the trajectory of defense and intelligence spending still underwrites most of them. We are positioning for the process, not for a punchline.
The table below ranks all eighteen holdings by trailing P/E, the fastest way to see the valuation barbell that defines this basket. Prices, earnings and margins are live from TTerminal market data and will move.
| Company | Role | Price | YTD | P/E | Net margin | Rev TTM $B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leidos LDOS | Defense IT | $123.52 | -31.2% | 11.3 | 8.3% | $17.33B |
| Booz Allen Hamilton BAH | Defense IT | $79.03 | -6.2% | 11.5 | 7.6% | $11.22B |
| SAIC SAIC | Defense IT | $113.89 | +13.1% | 16.9 | 5.6% | $5.55B |
| CACI International CACI | Defense IT | $524.40 | -1.7% | 21.7 | 5.9% | $9.16B |
| Teledyne Technologies TDY | Sensors | $612.56 | +19.4% | 31.0 | 15.0% | $6.23B |
| Honeywell International HON | Aerospace | $212.48 | +8.6% | 33.1 | 10.9% | $37.66B |
| Amentum AMTM | Aerospace | $23.02 | -20.9% | 38.4 | 0.9% | $14.2B |
| Emerson Electric EMR | Sensors | $139.27 | +4.5% | 43.1 | 13.4% | $18.32B |
| Iridium Communications IRDM | Comms | $48.30 | +175.7% | 48.8 | 12.1% | $0.88B |
| BWX Technologies BWXT | Materials | $188.50 | +8.0% | 50.4 | 10.2% | $3.38B |
| Keysight Technologies KEYS | Sensors | $330.10 | +60.8% | 54.1 | 17.3% | $6.09B |
| KLA KLAC | Sensors | $2,104.89 | +67.1% | 61.3 | 35.8% | $12.74B |
| Materion MTRN | Materials | $225.35 | +79.5% | 61.6 | 4.0% | $1.92B |
| ATI ATI | Materials | $178.98 | +55.2% | 63.0 | 9.1% | $4.59B |
| Quanta Services PWR | Aerospace | $694.95 | +63.5% | 102.2 | 3.7% | $28.48B |
| DuPont de Nemours DD | Materials | $46.72 | +15.5% | n/m | 0.1% | $6.92B |
| Hexcel HXL | Materials | $88.58 | +19.3% | n/m | 6.1% | $1.94B |
| Fluor FLR | Aerospace | $48.99 | +21.8% | n/m | 2.2% | $15.19B |
Source: TTerminal market data (Polygon Advanced). TTM revenue, margins and trailing P/E from latest reported financials; price and performance to latest close. As of publication.
Two facts jump out. First, the valuation spread is enormous: the intelligence-IT incumbents Leidos and Booz Allen trade on roughly 11x earnings, while Quanta sits near 102x and KLA, Materion and ATI above 60x. Second, margin quality maps cleanly onto the value chain: the measurement and connectivity names (KLA at a 36% net margin, Teledyne 15%, Iridium with a 26% operating margin) are genuinely high-quality franchises, while the engineering and services names (Amentum, Fluor, Quanta, SAIC) run thin single-digit margins and have to be judged on scale, backlog and price. That tension, cheap-and-low-margin versus expensive-and-high-quality, is the basket's central trade-off, and it is why each name below is judged first on its financials.
Anything that flies in an unusual way begins with what it is made of and what powers it. The cleanest read on this sleeve is margins and pricing power.
Allegheny's specialty-materials franchise carries the financial signature of an aerospace-materials upcycle in full swing: TTM revenue near $4.6B growing roughly 12% year on year, a 9% net and 14% operating margin that reflect genuine pricing power in titanium and nickel superalloys. The market has noticed, putting the stock on about 63x earnings and 5.3x sales, a premium that demands continued execution. This is a quality cyclical, not a value name; the UAP angle is incremental leverage on a business already firing. Verdict: own the cycle, respect the multiple.
Materion embodies the basket's small-cap quality tension: revenue of about $1.9B growing a striking 31% year on year, but thin margins (4% net, 6% operating) typical of a niche-materials processor, and a rich 62x earnings, 2.4x sales valuation. The case is strategic scarcity rather than current profitability, beryllium and advanced optics with few substitutes. Verdict: a strategic-materials option priced as one; size for volatility.
Hexcel runs a healthier margin profile than its materials peers, around 6% net on roughly $1.9B of revenue growing about 10%. With diluted EPS thin this quarter the cleanest valuation read is about 3.5x sales, reasonable for an aerospace-structures franchise geared to airframe build rates. Verdict: quality structural-materials exposure at a fair multiple.
DuPont is the fundamental outlier: a $6.9B-revenue diversified materials house whose TTM earnings were dragged to roughly breakeven by charges, leaving net margin near zero and no meaningful P/E, on about 2.7x sales. The logic here is normalization and the pending portfolio separation, not the UAP theme, which is marginal to a business this broad. Verdict: a self-help and re-rating story; the basket's materials ballast.
BWX Technologies has arguably the best fundamental profile in the propulsion sleeve: about $3.4B revenue growing a strong 26% year on year, double-digit net and operating margins (10% and 12%), and EPS near $3.74, on roughly 50x earnings. The premium reflects a defensible naval-reactor and microreactor monopoly with a long backlog. With the stock about 22% off its high and below its 200-day, it is the rare name where growth, quality and a pullback coincide. Verdict: the highest-conviction fundamental name in the propulsion leg.
You cannot study, detect or reverse-engineer what you cannot measure. This is the highest-margin, highest-quality sleeve in the basket.
Teledyne is a textbook quality compounder: about $6.2B revenue, a 15% net and 19% operating margin, EPS near $19.75, and a comparatively reasonable 31x earnings for the quality on offer. Diversified across imaging, instrumentation and defense electronics, it converts the sensing theme into steady cash flow rather than a binary bet. Verdict: the sensor sleeve's anchor and the easiest name to own through a fade.
Keysight pairs strong growth with premium margins: roughly $6.1B revenue growing about 31% year on year, a 17% net and 18% operating margin, EPS near $6.10, on about 54x earnings and 9.3x sales. That is a full valuation, justified only if the measurement build-out keeps compounding. Verdict: the highest-quality pure expression of the measurement thesis, priced accordingly.
KLA is the financial heavyweight of the basket and it shows: about $12.7B revenue, a remarkable 36% net and 41% operating margin, and EPS of roughly $34.36, on about 61x earnings and a steep 20x sales. These are best-in-class semicap economics; the caveat is that the valuation embeds the broader compute cycle far more than any UAP optionality. Verdict: own it for quality and measurement exposure, not as a thematic bet.
Emerson is the basket's steady industrial compounder: about $18.3B revenue, healthy 13% net and 15% operating margins, EPS near $3.23, on roughly 43x earnings. Growth is modest at about 3%, which is the point: this is the low-beta automation-and-sensing anchor that keeps the basket's volatility in check. Verdict: ballast with real measurement and automation exposure.
Programs need engineers, facilities and power. Read this sleeve on revenue scale and backlog, not margins.
Honeywell offers scale and balance: about $37.7B revenue, an 11% net and 17% operating margin, EPS near $6.42, on a reasonable 33x earnings. Low-single-digit growth is offset by a pending portfolio separation that could surface value across its aerospace and automation franchises. Verdict: large-cap aerospace ballast with a self-help catalyst layered on the theme.
Amentum is the deep-value services name: a large $14.2B revenue base but razor-thin margins (about 1% net, under 4% operating) and slightly negative growth, on roughly 38x depressed earnings yet only 0.4x sales. The cheapness is on the top line; the risk is execution and the defense budget. If disclosure means more classified-program work, this is the most operationally levered, lowest-priced way to play it. Verdict: a turnaround option, not a quality holding.
Fluor carries the classic engineering-and-construction profile: a large $15.2B revenue base, thin and currently negative operating margin, and a cheap 0.4x sales valuation that reflects project lumpiness and execution risk. The fundamentals are a backlog-and-margins story; the UAP angle is who builds the facility. Verdict: optionality on government and advanced-facility build-out, priced for its volatility.
Quanta is the basket's growth-at-a-high-price infrastructure name: about $28.5B revenue growing a strong 20% year on year, but slim construction margins (about 4% net, 6% operating), on a demanding 102x earnings and 3.7x sales. The market is paying for electrification and grid demand, not for current profitability. Verdict: a powerful secular trend, but the multiple leaves no margin for error.
Disclosure is, first and last, an intelligence-community story, and on the numbers this is where the value sits.
Booz Allen is, on the numbers, one of the cheapest and most defensive names in the basket: about $11.2B revenue, a solid 8% net and 9% operating margin, EPS near $6.89, on just 11.5x earnings, with the stock about 34% off its high. The recent revenue softness (about -6%) explains both the de-rating and the opportunity. As the IC-consulting incumbent, it is the value way to own the disclosure-spending thesis. Verdict: the basket's contrarian-value anchor.
CACI offers intelligence-community pure-play exposure at a reasonable multiple: about $9.2B revenue growing roughly 9%, a 6% net and 9% operating margin, EPS near $24.21, on about 22x earnings, well off its highs. Signals and electronic-warfare work map directly onto any advanced-sensing program. Verdict: a reasonably-priced IC operator with genuine thematic fit.
Leidos is the deepest value in the basket and the most contested: about $17.3B revenue, a respectable 8% net and 12% operating margin and EPS near $10.91, on just 11x earnings, yet the stock is down about 31% on the year and sits roughly 29% below its 200-day. Solid fundamentals, maximum sentiment pessimism. If you believe IC budgets rise on disclosure, this is the most mispriced way to express it; the risk is catching it before the trend turns. Verdict: high-reward, high-risk value.
SAIC blends value and momentum: about $5.6B revenue, a 6% net and 8% operating margin, EPS near $6.74, on a modest 17x earnings, with the stock up about 21% on the month and near its high. It is cheaper than its growth and quality alone would suggest, and currently the strongest mover among the IC-IT names. Verdict: the value-plus-momentum pick of the intelligence sleeve.
Distributed sensing is worthless without a network to carry it.
Iridium has the best margin profile in the connectivity sleeve: about $0.9B revenue, a 12% net and a striking 26% operating margin on a recurring, subscription-like satellite model, EPS near $0.99, on about 49x earnings. Growth is modest at about 2%, so the roughly 177% year-to-date move is a re-rating of quality and scarcity rather than a growth surprise, which is why it now looks extended. Verdict: a high-quality connectivity franchise that has already run; respect the price.
Read as a portfolio, the basket is a deliberate barbell. At one end sit the de-rated, cash-generative value names, Leidos, Booz Allen, CACI, SAIC and Amentum, mostly intelligence and services businesses on low-double-digit or cheaper earnings multiples and depressed sentiment. At the other end sit the high-quality, high-multiple compounders, KLA, Keysight, ATI, Materion, BWXT and Quanta, where growth and margins are real but the price already embeds a great deal of good news. The mega-cap anchors (KLA, Honeywell, Emerson) supply quality and liquidity; the small caps (Materion, Iridium, SAIC, Amentum, Hexcel, Fluor) supply the torque.
The honest, non-thematic risk is correlation to one factor: the US defense and intelligence budget. Booz Allen, CACI, Leidos, SAIC, Amentum and to a degree Honeywell and Teledyne all move with appropriations. A continuing-resolution scare or a spending freeze would hit a large slice of the basket regardless of any disclosure headline, and the thin-margin services names would feel it first. That is the exposure to size around, and the reason the basket also holds high-margin, less budget-dependent franchises in measurement and connectivity.
Slow disclosure (base case). Documents and hearings dribble out, appropriation is gradual. The expensive momentum names consolidate, the cheap value names do little, and the basket tracks the broader defense and aerospace cycle. Rebalancing from the rich into the cheap is the main source of return.
Hard catalyst. A genuinely market-moving disclosure or a named program line. The high-torque small caps and the propulsion and sensing names lead, while the de-rated IC value names (Leidos, Booz Allen) re-rate fastest off a low base and cheap multiple. This is the asymmetry the basket is built to capture.
Fade. Disclosure stalls in committee with no procurement. The basket falls back on fundamentals, which is the point of building it from real businesses: the materials upcycle, the semicap build-out and the defense budget still underpin most of the names. The speculative premium in the 60-to-100x names deflates fastest; the 11x value names have far less to give back.
Manage the theme as one position. Drop all eighteen tickers into a single watchlist and read them through the same engine:
The UAP disclosure basket is a disciplined way to hold a speculative idea on fundamentals rather than faith. Eighteen real businesses across the value chain that any genuine utilization of advanced technology would have to use, with a deliberate barbell between cheap, de-rated intelligence and services names and expensive, high-quality compounders in materials, measurement and connectivity. The downside is anchored by cash flows; the upside is geared to a binary policy catalyst. The edge is in the numbers: buy quality when it pulls back, accumulate value while it is hated, watch the defense budget as the real risk, and let the conviction and news engines tell you when the move that matters has started.
Revenue, margins, earnings, valuation multiples, prices and ranges are sourced from TTerminal market data (Polygon Advanced) from the latest reported financials and latest available close, and are subject to revision. Holdings and weights reflect a thematic, roughly equal-weight basket as of publication and will change with rebalancing. This is a speculative theme built on a policy catalyst, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This article is TTerminal's own market analysis and is not investment advice. Do your own research.
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